"Future Forty includes several in-depth analyses of key economic and fiscal drivers. These include a detailed examination of Ireland’s demographic profile; the potential long-term economic impacts of deglobalisation; the risks and benefits of digitalisation; and the long-term costs of decarbonisation and climate mitigation. In addition to these global trends, Future Forty also assesses the long-term impacts on our economy of current housing supply challenges, the long-term costs of supporting the Irish healthcare system in the context of our ageing population, and the potential trade and migration impacts of further EU expansion. The analysis is undertaken on a ‘no-policy change’ basis.
The analysis presents a Central Scenario, as well as multiple alternative possible future outcomes. In total, over 2,000 scenarios have been modelled, which collectively point to continued growth in living standards, but with slowing growth over the long-term, and a steady decline of our fiscal position. This is due mainly to demographic shifts, slowing productivity, climate costs and a slowdown in corporation tax receipts."
The report is available at
https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-finance/publications/future-forty-an-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-to-2065/Contents
Foreword vii
Key Messages ix
Executive Summary xi
1. Introduction 1
1.1 The Challenge of Forecasting 2
1.2 Existing Medium-to-Long Term National Strategies 3
1.3 Application for policy making and Anticipatory Governance 6
2. Future Forty Model Overview 9
2.1 Overview 9
2.2 Economic Projections 10
2.3 Fiscal Projections 14
3. Climate Change and the Green Transition 17
3.1 Overview 17
3.2 Economic Impacts of Climate Change 18
3.3 Modelling Approach 20
3.4 Modelling Potential Scenarios 23
3.5 Fiscal Impacts from Climate Change and the Green Transition 25
3.6 Projecting Potential Fiscal Impact of Climate Change 26
3.7 Projecting Potential Fiscal Impact of Green Transition 28
3.8 Policy Considerations and Limitations 34
4. Demographic Trends 37
4.1 Overview 37
4.2 Migration Trends and Flows 38
4.3 Modelling Approach 44
4.4 Migration and Birthrate Projections 49
4.5 Overall Population Projections (2024-2065) 55
4.6 Policy Considerations 58
5. Housing 61
5.1 Overview 61
5.2 Fiscal Impacts of Housing 63
5.3 Potential Fiscal Impacts 66
5.4 Modelling Approach for Social Housing Outcomes 70
5.5 Modelling Approach for Housing Support Outcomes 72
5.6 Overall Impacts on Public Finances 75
5.7 Policy Considerations and Limitations 76
6. Healthcare 79
6.1 Overview 79
6.2 Health Outcomes and Demographic Changes 82
Department of Finance | Future Forty Page | v
6.3 Understanding Health Expenditure 84
6.4 Driving Productivity in the Health System 90
6.5 Capital Investment Trends in the Irish Health System 93
6.6 Drivers of Health Expenditure 97
6.7 Projection and Scenario Analysis 100
6.8 Projecting Potential Impacts 102
6.9 Policy Considerations and Limitations 110
7. Digitalisation 113
7.1 Overview 113
7.2 The Digitalisation Process 114
7.3 Historical Economic Impacts and Potential Risks 120
7.4 Public Sector and Exchequer Impacts 125
7.5 Modelling Approach 127
7.6 Scenario Analysis 129
7.7 Policy Considerations and Limitations 135
8. Deglobalisation 137
8.1 Overview 137
8.2 Impact of Deglobalisation on the Irish Economy 138
8.3 Modelling Approach 144
8.4 Potential Deglobalisation Scenarios 149
8.5 Policy Considerations and Limitations 155
9. EU Enlargement 157
9.1 Overview 157
9.2 Historical Evidence 166
9.3 Fiscal and Economic Impacts 170
9.4 Modelling Approach 170
9.5 Outcome Analysis 172
9.6 Policy Considerations 177
10. Future Economic and Fiscal Scenarios 179
10.1 Central Scenario 179
10.2 Scenario Analysis 190
10.3 Cumulative Impacts and Distribution Analysis 195
10.4 Conclusion 197
11. Policy Considerations and Next Steps 199
11.1 Strategic Economic and Fiscal Considerations 199
11.2 Balancing Short to Long-Term Domestic Policy Challenges 208
11.3 Managing Global Interdependencies 211
11.4 Next Steps 212
Annex: Future Forty Technical Note
