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Have you seen this? / Re: Finance and Development Magazine at 60
« Last post by Napodano on June 28, 2024, 07:10:54 GMT »
In 1964 I was just three year old :-)

Trajectories I have experienced:
- from projects to programmes;
- from annual budget, split between recurrent and 'development' budget documents, to MTEF and more recently MTRS;
- from poverty reduction strategies to national development strategies
- from fiduciary risk assessments to PEFA and other codified assessments (TADAT. PIMA...)
- the surge of performance in budgeting towards its bureaucratisation ('passport of indicators'). 

What else have I missed?

 
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The Sector PFM Boards / A programme for greater health equity
« Last post by John Short on June 22, 2024, 09:05:08 GMT »
A programme for greater health equity for the next UK Government
Michael Marmot, Jessica Allen m.marmot@ucl.ac.uk
www.thelancet.com Vol 403 June 22, 2024
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01243-1/abstract?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email

I found this article interesting – although it is aimed at the UK it has some very interesting international comparisons and its theme is universal.  I also found it quite chilling as it, to a certain extent, reflects the situation when I moved to the North East to the Northern Region Strategy Team in the mid 70s.  Although the hospital infrastructure in the North East is now excellent,  perhaps the underlying social conditions in terms of preventative health education is not so.

To quote the article: “The UK is unhealthy, literally and metaphorically. Literally, since 2010, many health indicators have stopped improving, health inequalities are increasing between social groups and regions, and health for people who live in the most deprived areas is declining. Of course, the National Health Service (NHS) should be properly funded, but attention to the social determinants of health is vital. The principle of proportionate universalism should be applied to all policies aimed at reducing inequalities. Health follows a social gradient—the greater the deprivation of an area the higher the mortality rate and the worse the health.  A policy of targeting only the people who are worst off misses people with social disadvantage and related health disadvantage who fall above the threshold of intervention.

Eight principles to prioritise health equity
• Give every child the best start in life
• Enable all children, young people, and adults to maximise their capabilities and have control over their lives
• Create fair employment and good work for all
• Ensure a healthy standard of living for all
• Create and develop healthy and sustainable places and communities
• Strengthen the role and impact of ill-health prevention
• Tackle racism and discrimination and their outcomes
• Pursue environmental sustainability and health equity together”

These Marmot Principles are from the 2010 report Fair Society, Healthy Lives: the Marmot Review. Marmot M, Allen J, Goldblatt P, Boyce T, McNeish D, Grady M. Fair society, healthy lives: the Marmot Review. London: Institute of Health Equity, 2010. https://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/resources-reports/fair-society healthy-lives-the-marmot-review/fair-society-healthy-lives-full-report pdf.pdf (accessed June 10, 2024)
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Have you seen this? / Finance and Development Magazine at 60
« Last post by John Short on June 05, 2024, 15:24:01 GMT »
Interesting article on economics and development relating to the IMF and World Bank over the past 60 years.

Well worth a read.


THE LIFE AND TIMES OF FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT
ANNA POSTELNYAK

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/06/FandD-at-60-the-life-and-times-of-Finance-Development-Anna-Postelnyak?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

"The Beatles are all the rage. The US Congress passes the Civil Rights Act. Nelson Mandela is condemned to life in prison in South Africa. Audrey Hepburn stars in My Fair Lady. And in Washington, on a quiet corner of 19th Street, NW, a magazine is born.

The debut of Finance & Development in June 1964 may not have been as momentous as other events of that year, but it marked the opening of a unique window for the public to peer into the workings—and thinking—of the IMF.

In a special section of F&D’s 60th anniversary issue, Anna Postelnyak traces the magazine’s history. She shows how it covered the global economy’s most important milestones and how it evolved into a platform for thought leaders from many countries to explain and debate issues central to the world economy."

It would be interesting to hear of the PFMBoard members' experiences  and any comments?

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Have you seen this? / Re: World Basic Income and AI revisited
« Last post by John Short on May 19, 2024, 10:41:45 GMT »
We'll need universal basic income - AI 'godfather'

The computer scientist regarded as the “godfather of artificial intelligence” says the government will have to establish a universal basic income to deal with the impact of AI on inequality.

Professor Geoffrey Hinton told BBC Newsnight that a benefits reform giving fixed amounts of cash to every citizen would be needed because he was “very worried about AI taking lots of mundane jobs”.

“I was consulted by people in Downing Street and I advised them that universal basic income was a good idea,” he said.

He said while he felt AI would increase productivity and wealth, the money would go to the rich “and not the people whose jobs get lost and that’s going to be very bad for society”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnd607ekl99o.amp
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External Audit, an essential oversight function / SPOTTING INTEGRITY GAPS
« Last post by chandra on May 06, 2024, 14:48:13 GMT »
Dear Colleagues,
The Blavatnik School of Government, University of OXFORD has just released a paper on SPOTTING INTEGRITY GAPS: A Practical and Appropriate Role for Public
Auditors in the Fight Against Corruption.
This is a research paper authored by former Auditor General of Nepal Mr. Tanka Mani Sharma Dangal and 
Professor of Practice of Public Integrity, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford Mr. Christopher Stone.
This paper gives new insights for SAIs around the globe to deal with integrity gaps and addressing.
I do believe that you will find this paper interesting and useful. Here is a link to the paper.

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/chandler-papers-spotting-integrity-gaps

If you have any feedback or suggestions for the author, you may contact Mr. Dangal at sharmatm@gmail.com
Thank you.

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The Revenue Framework / Re: Food for thought- excise taxes on sugar and salt
« Last post by John Short on March 25, 2024, 14:21:05 GMT »
Still a debate that is ongoing.  ‘The cost of dealing with disease is growing all the time’: why experts think sugar taxes should be far higher
 
More than 100 countries impose levies on sugar, but should tariffs increase to improve wellbeing and generate revenues to help tackle related illnesses?

Article worth reading at
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/24/sugar-taxes-governments-public-health-economy

17
Difficult to know which board to post this but it does relate to "against rule-of-thumb economics".


just been in Ireland (for the successful  defence of the 6 Nations) and a few articles in the papers were of interest.

The first related to a briefing on new European rules relating to fiscal policy which is going through formal EU legislation process and is expected to be in force in May.
Essentially it is setting out a 4 to 5 year framework rather than the one year many countries have (including Ireland which the article "McGrath to update Ministers in new fiscal rules" By Jack Horgan-Jones The Irish Times March 20 2024, mentions)

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/03/20/michael-mcgrath-to-update-ministers-on-new-fiscal-rules-currently-going-through-formal-eu-legislative-process/

The only webpage I can find  is
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-and-fiscal-governance/fiscal-frameworks-eu-member-states/fiscal-rules-eu-member-states_en
which is a bit dated.


On a more serious note there was an article in the Sunday Independent on St Patrick's day (the day after that game) by Tom Rowley entitled : A gaggle of economists walk into a pub in Castlebar and reckon they’re in Cascais.
https://m.independent.ie/life/tom-rowley-a-gaggle-of-economists-walk-into-a-pub-in-castlebar-and-reckon-theyre-in-cascais/a483953223.html

The first paragraph is:

"What is it about economists? They’re hard to live with a lot of the time, but it seems we can’t live without them. George Bernard Shaw wryly said that if all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion. The Canadian educator Laurence J Peter reckoned “an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”. For me, British fashion designer Vivienne Westwood really hit the nail on the head when she concluded that “economists treat economics as if it’s a pure science divorced from the facts of life”.

It is an amusing read but I hope that the second article is not related to the first!

At least as Tom Rowley states "The economists loved the quaintness of the pub and the earthy, good humour of the regulars".  That is something I can relate to!

18
As applied to the UK in
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/strengthening-uk-fiscal-framework
Strengthening the UK’s fiscal framework Putting fiscal rules in their place
by GEMMA TETLOW OLLY BARTRUM THOMAS POPE

Fiscal policy making in the UK has been far from perfect. Problems like short-termism, policy churn and gaming of the system are often blamed on fiscal rules. This report examines whether that
is fair, or whether these issues are rooted more deeply in the underlying fiscal framework and makes recommendations for strengthening fiscal policy making.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-02/strengthening-uk-fiscal-framework.pdf

The UK’s fiscal framework, including a flawed set of rules, is incentivising bad policy decisions shaped by short-termism and fictional spending plans – and does little to promote fiscal sustainability.

With a week to go until Jeremy Hunt’s pre-election budget, this report warns that successive governments have gamed their fiscal rules: claiming to be adhering to fiscal discipline while frequently announcing short-term giveaways matched by longer-term tax rises or spending cuts that often do not materialise. While the chancellor will use his budget to insist he is working to the letter of the fiscal rules, the paper says he will not be adhering to the spirit of those rules.

Jeremy Hunt will only “meet” his fiscal rules through "worse than fiction" spending plans – plans that Labour is set to remain broadly signed up to – and immediate tax giveaways, as he and his predecessors have done in 85% of fiscal events since 2010. But these spending plans will almost certainly have to be revised, as they have been in nine out of 10 previous spending reviews. Despite this, the OBR will be obliged to say that the chancellor has met his fiscal targets because it has to take Hunt’s (fictional) word for it.

The report sets out why the current approach is no longer working – and provides a guide for this or future governments to reform the framework to enable them to make better choices. It calls on chancellors to set out a comprehensive fiscal strategy – working out the levels of taxation, expenditure and debt that are consistent with meeting government’s overarching objectives – from which a set of rules can follow.

With fiscal rules acting as an important signal to the financial markets and the public, and by providing a “commitment device” for government, the paper rejects calls to abolish them and instead sets out a new approach. Its recommendations include:

Committing to a single fiscal event per year to allow greater long-term strategic thinking 

Committing to a new regular cycle of spending reviews, with budgets covering five years and reviewed every three years

Redesigning fiscal rules so that they are consistent with government’s objectives, treating investment differently to current spending, binding in the third year of the forecast (rather than the fifth as the current rules do), and providing flexibility to respond to shocks

Giving the Office for Budget Responsibility the flexibility to assess whether government policy is consistent with meeting the government’s overarching fiscal objectives, rather than just the letter of specific rules.

19
Another related article

A PLACE FOR POLITICS
JEFFRY FRIEDEN
MARCH 2024

"Politics is often messy, but it’s how society puts a value on things economists can’t measure."

"Economics is good at identifying policies that could raise aggregate social welfare. One such policy is free trade. Virtually all economists believe that most economies could be improved by removing barriers to trade. No sensible economist or policymaker pretends that this is costless: while consumers and exporters may benefit, firms and industries that have trouble competing with imports are likely to suffer.

There is a simple economic solution. If a social-welfare-improving policy creates losers, the benefits it generates for society can be used to compensate those harmed. The government can tax those advantaged by trade liberalization—exporters, consumers—to help those disadvantaged, autoworkers for instance. Since by definition the policy increases social welfare, spreading the gains will still leave society better-off, only in a more equitable fashion than if we simply left newly unemployed autoworkers to fend for themselves."

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/A-Place-for-Politics-Jeffry-Frieden?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery


Economics: How should it change? 

From financial crises to climate change to technological innovation, the global economy has evolved drastically in recent decades, yet economics as a discipline is much slower to adapt.

In the March issue of Finance & Development we ask, Economics: How should it change?

“Extensive professional soul-searching since the global financial crisis of 2008 has focused on how economics can better integrate social sciences and elevate welfare and distributional issues,” writes F&D editor-in-chief, Gita Bhatt.
“There has been much rethinking of macroeconomics and the design of policy approaches. And there is a growing consensus that the profession must be open to new ideas and frameworks if it hopes to solve the world’s biggest problems.”
This issue of F&D takes a fresh look at the discipline. We invited leading economists and other eminent thinkers to share their views on how economics must change to better address the challenges of the 21st century.

Leading with our symposium, How Economics Must Change, we ask six prominent economists to contemplate how the profession can improve:
•   Rethinking My Economics | Questioning one’s views as circumstances evolve can be a good thing | Angus Deaton
•   Why and How Economics Must Change | Economics needs greater humility, a better sense of history, and more diversity | Jayati Ghosh
•   Renewing Economics | Fundamental economic changes require a departure from simplistic economics | Diane Coyle
•   How Inflation Radically Changes Economic Ideas | Inflation teaches us that supply, not demand, constrains our economies, and government borrowing is limited | John H. Cochrane
•   Breaking the Debt Supercycle | Dependence on credit to boost demand imperils the world economy—we must correct the underlying imbalances | Atif Mian
•   Economics and Innovation | Economists can play a crucial role in the development of innovations for serving social, environmental, and other human needs | Michael Kremer

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Interesting article in IMF's Finance and Development  Magazine March  2024


Better economics must start from the premise that our existing policy models are inadequate for the range and magnitude of challenges we face, writes Harvard's Dani Rodrik in the forthcoming March issue of IMF Finance & Development magazine.
Economists will have to address these challenges imaginatively, applying the tools of their trade in a way that takes into account differences in economic and political context in different parts of the world, he writes.
"Economics can help only if it expands our collective imagination instead of reining it in."

Full article from:

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Point-of-view-addressing-challenges-of-a-new-era-Dani-Rodrick?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery


Reading it I don't think the baby is being thrown out with the bathwater but perhaps politicians should apply the underlying principles of economics to their own circumstances rather than follow a political mantra that does not take account of reality!
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