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11
Interesting article in IMF F&D Magazine

Behind the Veil of Tariff Fixation
MICHAEL PETTIS
September 2025

The world needs a broader conception of trade policy that considers how economies allocate income

"In the heated debates over trade policy in Washington and beyond, tariffs are often portrayed as the primary—or even the sole—instrument by which governments intervene in global commerce. They are easy to quantify, easier to politicize, and readily wielded in bilateral negotiations.

But this focus on tariffs is misleading. It obscures the more fundamental mechanisms by which countries shape their trade relationships with the world. Because a country’s internal imbalances between consumption and production must always be consistent with its external imbalances, anything that affects the former must affect the latter, and vice versa. Tariffs are just one of many tools a government can use to change a country’s internal imbalance.

Like most such tools, tariffs work by shifting income from consumers to producers. But because of their visibility, they are often among the most politically contentious of these tools. By contrast, many of the most powerful trade interventions in today’s world occur not as tariffs but as policy choices that don’t appear to be related to trade at all. Fiscal decisions, regulatory structures, labor policies, and institutional norms can all affect how income is distributed, and how economies are balanced between consumption and production, with far-reaching implications for global trade.

To understand why tariffs receive such disproportionate attention, it helps to consider their visibility. A tariff is a line item in a trade negotiation affecting the price of an imported good. It’s easy to identify, easy to weaponize, easy to reverse, and very obviously linked to trade. But the very simplicity that makes a tariff politically salient also makes it a poor proxy for trade policy as a whole."


https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/point-of-view-behind-the-veil-of-tariff-fixation-michael-pettis
12
As a follow up to A Case for Cities in Local Government Reorganisation and English Devolution attached is a paper I wrote with John Howard while at the Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies (CURDS) at Newcastle University in 1985.  Google AI assistant has kindly summarised the report which is below.  For readers interested in tracking public expenditure the paper develops a methodology based on the PE classification categories at the time.
The document discusses the role and impact of public expenditure on regional and subregional economic development in the UK.
Introduction
•   Public expenditure in the UK was 43.5% of GDP in 1981-82 and 42.5% in 1984-85.
•   It is classified by spending authority, functional program, and economic category.
•   The analysis of public expenditure began in the 1970s, focusing on regional comparisons and indicators of need.
•   Inter-regional differences in expenditure levels were linked to regional needs, such as unemployment and demographics.
Role of Public Expenditure in Subregional Development
•   Public expenditure is believed to positively impact economic development by increasing service supply and aggregate demand.
•   Limited empirical evidence exists to support the assertion that public investment leads to economic growth.
•   Infrastructure investment is a key focus, with the UK government aiming to stimulate economic activity in disadvantaged areas.
•   The European Regional Development Fund emphasizes infrastructure, tourism, urban renewal, and environmental improvements.
Methodology for Allocating Public Expenditure to Subregions
•   Public expenditure can be analyzed as expenditures made "IN" a region versus expenditures made "FOR" a region.
•   "IN" expenditures refer to cash flows within a region, while "FOR" expenditures focus on benefits accruing to the region.
•   The classification system helps in understanding the impact of public expenditure on regional development.
•   Subregional expenditures are categorized into those benefiting only the subregion and those benefiting the entire region.
Allocation of Public Expenditure Programmes
•   Public expenditure is allocated to four broad policy headings: economic development regeneration, infrastructure, social services, and income support.
•   Each subprogramme is classified based on its contribution to subregional development.
•   Examples include agricultural support, industrial grants, transport infrastructure, and health services.
•   The allocation aims to reflect the impact of public spending on local economies and communities.
Data Sources or Lack of Sources
•   Challenges in collecting data hindered the analysis of public expenditure at regional and subregional levels.
•   Responses from various government departments showed inconsistencies in data availability and willingness to provide information.
•   The lack of comprehensive data limits the ability to assess the effectiveness of public expenditure policies.
•   Recommendations include improving data collection methods and interdepartmental cooperation for better regional planning.
Conclusion
•   Effective regional planning requires comprehensive information on public expenditure impacts across departments.
•   Current systems are inadequate, and there is a need for improved data collection and analysis.
•   The study highlights the importance of recognizing the interconnectedness of public spending decisions and their regional effects.
•   Without political will and a focus on regional matters, progress in urban analysis and planning will remain slow.

I have scanned the hard copy of the report but it is too big in size to attach but I can send a pdf to anyone interested.
13
A Case for Cities in Local Government Reorganisation and English Devolution
https://www.caseforcities.uk

Interesting and very readable report by Inner Circle Consulting https://www.innercircleconsulting.co.uk that focuses on devolving greater power and responsibility to cities in England.  This may have a resonance in other countries looking at devolution.

Brief Summary
Cities are England’s growth engines, but too many are still governed by outdated boundaries defined a generation ago.
This report sets out a practical plan to right-size city governance, embed prevention into public services, and create a connected network of high-performing cities that drives national prosperity. It’s a time-limited opportunity created by Local Government Reorganisation (LGR) and the new wave of devolution. We argue for decisive action now - before the window closes.

The Case for Cities report was prepared on behalf of the cities of Peterborough, Lincoln, Reading, Gloucester, Oxford, Norwich, Swindon, Exeter, Ipswich, and Cambridge. A coalition of fast growing cities of national significance
Harnessing the opportunities of population growth, while closing the productivity gap through the right powers, governance and geographies, is critical if cities are to realise their full potential as drivers of national prosperity. This will unleash the untapped potential of English cities
The data shows that cities in England have untapped potential when we compare them to international averages and perform unevenly when compared to national benchmarks. Some cities — from Ipswich to Swindon — perform strongly on productivity, most English cities fall well below international peers. Patterns of population growth are also varied: Cambridge, for example, grew by over 17% between 2013 and 2023, compared with 7% nationally and 6% in London.
Local government reorganisation and devolution represent a unique chance to address the barriers to urban growth and unlock potential for cities across England

A summary of the recommendations

To create the conditions for a network of enabled cities to contribute to our collective future, we need to:

Empower cities through single-tier governance
By creating a new generation of city-led unitaries, distinct from county-scale models, so cities can govern at the right scale to deliver growth, reform, and prevention for their communities.

Right-size city-led unitaries
By reforming outmoded boundaries so cities can plan and deliver across the real places where people live, work, and move.

Commit to a long term national cities strategy
By establishing a long term cross-government strategy that recognises cities’ role in delivering national missions and key commitments such as the spending review and industrial strategy.

Back a polycentric England
By investing in a connected network of high-performing cities, beyond the core city-led metropolitan areas, to drive balanced growth across England and the UK.

Hardwire prevention into public services
By equipping cities to lead on prevention by aligning health, housing, and care services at the urban scale, with the data, powers, and partnerships needed to act early.

Embed city-led unitaries in devolution deals
By ensuring all Mayoral Strategic Authorities (MSAs) have strong, empowered city-led unitaries, capable of driving delivery and shaping strategy from the ground up.


To me the most challenging recommendation is hardwire prevention into public services at the right scale so that the moment can be used to reform service delivery, giving cities the power to deliver effectively on prevention by aligning services across health, housing, and welfare at the urban scale, with the data, powers, and partnerships needed to act early.  This will require significant changes in how different agencies under different government structures work such as health care under central government and social care under local government.  This is something that has been talked about but nothing has actually happened. Will this require a city block grant system similar to that which is in place for Scotland?  This might require a change to the Barnett Formulae! And what about the surrounding rural areas with respect to specialist hospital health care which tend to be more city-located?  Perhaps a more regional approach combining rural and urban with a further city and rural focus within the region? Is this something that central government and a Treasury that is more focused on financial control would contemplate?

Perhaps the recommended scale of devolution may have a chance of being implemented as it may not frighten off the Treasury. Nevertheless this work is a great step forward in the area of devolution and brings me back to the Northern Region Strategy Team which reported in 1977!  Implementing its recommendations would have been a huge step forward and have achieved what the Cities report is aimed at.
14
Interesting development in Albania

"Albania has appointed an artificial-intelligence system as a cabinet-level minister to oversee public procurement, a move the government says is designed to remove human discretion from the awarding of state contracts.
Prime Minister Edi Rama introduced the AI bot, named “Diella” — Albanian for “sun” — while unveiling his new cabinet on Thursday as he prepares to begin a fourth term.

Rama said Diella will manage and award all government tenders, a sphere long marred by corruption allegations in the Balkan state. He described Diella as Albania’s first virtual cabinet member, adding that the aim is to ensure tenders are “100% free of corruption”. The government did not publish technical details on governance, audit trails or human oversight for the system."

https://eutoday.net/albania-names-ai-bot-diella-as-procurement-minister/

I imagine there will be other sites that have commentary on this.
 
Update

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/albania-s-government-debuts-its-ai-minister-to-parliament/ar-AA1MOUVM?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=68cc035a303544d8bb5205eda76deb0b&ei=71
15
The Revenue Framework / A Fairer Property Tax
« Last post by John Short on August 22, 2025, 11:44:42 GMT »
Interesting paper on property taxes

A practical alternative to replace stamp duty and council tax
Tim Leunig
Chief Economist Onward

"The way Britain taxes households is both impractical and unfair. The stamp duty land tax raises transaction costs, preventing people from moving for new job opportunities, and undermines growth.
This report sets alternatives to the status quo and the rationale for these choices. In some cases, they are based on a clear and overwhelming economic principle. In others, they are a way to try to marry sometimes conflicting ideas
and sometimes they are a response to the realities of political consent."

https://www.ukonward.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Onward-A-Fairer-Property-Tax.pdf
16
Have you seen this? / Reclaiming a Policy Role for Economists
« Last post by John Short on July 30, 2025, 11:29:52 GMT »
In F&D Magazine

Reclaiming a Policy Role for Economists | Acknowledging missteps, listening well, defending data, and avoiding jargon will help the profession engage | Karen Dynan

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/06/point-of-view-reclaiming-a-policy-role-for-economists-karen-dynan


Can be linked to Economics and politics – Do the politicians speak to the economists? in Revenue Board
17
Interesting article in the Lancet which poses the question: IFC or IDA Is the former contradicting the latter?


"Despite promising to help alleviate poverty, World Bank investments in private hospitals in east Africa have resulted in catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for many. Ben Dooley and Micah Reddy for the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists."
World Bank-financed hospitals left patients with “crushing debt”
Dooley, Ben et al.
The Lancet, Volume 406, Issue 10499, 117 - 118
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01433-3
18
Mission logistics / Re: airport hubs in Europe
« Last post by John Short on June 30, 2025, 08:23:08 GMT »
When there is 20 + minutes taxiing from landing to arrival gate and a short time to the connecting flight which is at the other end of the airport, the airport is very good for keeping fitness levels up!  Easy airport to navigate notwithstanding that!
19
Mission logistics / Re: airport hubs in Europe
« Last post by Napodano on June 28, 2025, 14:48:10 GMT »
After 15 years from the poll, I consider iGA Istanbul Airport THE HUB flying east!

Anyone not convinced?
20
Interesting article in The Lancet  Volume 405, Issue 10493p1893-1895 May 31, 2025

Navigating health financing cliffs: a new era in global health

Kumanan Rasanathana rasanathank@who.int ∙ Maylene M Beltranc ∙ Alberta A Biritwum-Nyarkod ∙ Mark S Blechere ∙ Mark Dybulf ∙ Hajime Inoueg ∙ et al.

Complete article and references in

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2825%2900720-2
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00720-2/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email

An era in global health, inaugurated in 2000 by the UN Millennium Declaration,1 has passed. This era saw large increases in domestic spending on health and official development assistance for health,2 the creation of new global health institutions, such as the Global Fund and Gavi, and impressive progress in child mortality and infectious disease epidemic control.3 The sudden passing of this era, triggered in early 2025 by rapid reductions in development assistance for health (by US, European, and other large external funders), has exacerbated existing pressures on domestic health spending (which decreased between 2021 and 2022 per capita across all countries for the first time since 20002) and led to dramatic health financing cliffs.

Domestic health financing constraints—increasing debt servicing costs, poor economic growth following the COVID-19 pandemic, and deprioritisation of health spending with increased military expenditure—reduce the ability of countries to adapt to sudden changes in external funding, especially in low-income countries (LICs) where government health spending has stagnated since 2000.2 With sharp increases in debt servicing expenditures, over 3 billion people now live in countries where governments spend more on debt payments than health or education.4 Domestic spending is of paramount importance for health coverage, as development assistance for health makes up less than 0·5% of total health spending globally.2 However, external support has played a crucial role for specific programmes, populations, and services, particularly in LICs and in humanitarian crises. Development assistance for health has already been sharply declining, following the large increases during the COVID-19 pandemic, and even earlier,5 from US$84 billion in 2021 to $65 billion in 2023.6 The prognosis is now grim: the USA alone accounted for almost a third of external health funding in 2023.6
The question is whether countries, already off-track on the universal health coverage targets of the Sustainable Development Goals,7 can navigate these health financing cliffs to sustain health services. The potential for reversal in hard-won progress and large-scale suffering and death is a severe crisis.8 To fill these sudden gaps, countries can aim to increase current domestic and external resources, establish and mobilise new funding sources, increase efficiencies, reallocate funds, emphasise equity in service delivery, and adopt innovations. The task is two-fold: to address the acute crisis, and to transform health systems for this new era of global health. Both tasks have implications for how external funders and partners provide support.

Urgent action is needed on transitional financing, including prioritising increased domestic financing supported by concessional lending and blending grants with loans (in countries that can support increased borrowing). South Africa has proposed a further $1·5 billion in the national health budget over the next xrs, partly through tax increases.9 Nigeria has allocated an additional $200 million for health in the government budget.10
Countries can also target specific health priorities to fill gaps. In Thailand, external funding for health was less than 0·4% in 2022,2 but still supported programmes for HIV/AIDS and refugees in border camps in early 2025. The Government of Thailand is mitigating the acute consequences of funding withdrawal and, long-term, is seeking to reintegrate these services into the national public health system.11 Countries also need to address financing cliffs in sectors beyond health, such as education and nutrition, which drive key social determinants.

LICs have fewer choices to combat widespread service disruptions, job losses, and undermining of supply chains and health information systems, compared with high-income and middle-income countries. In Uganda, the Government is mandating integration of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, hepatitis B, hypertension, and diabetes services into routine services and streamlining health systems functions to increase efficiencies. External partners, including development banks, can help by revisiting debt-to-health swaps (where creditors forgive national debt in exchange for increased domestic investment in health12), putting remaining external assistance funds on-budget, and continuing to engage in technical support and knowledge sharing after financial support ceases.13

Countries can implement legal reforms to facilitate rapid purchasing of drugs within regular public procurement systems, including regional mechanisms, such as the Pan American Health Organization Revolving Fund.14 Countries can also identify and support policy champions to advocate for increased domestic investments in services previously funded by external sources.13 Innovations in financing (eg, taxation and insurance schemes) and technology (eg, digitalisation and artificial intelligence) are not a panacea, but can assist in mobilising resources and improving efficiency and equity, if stewarded systematically by governments.
Countries can learn from each other for both immediate and long-term challenges. Global partners, such as WHO, can help to document how countries are responding to the short-term crisis and identify medium-term imperatives for transformation of health systems and optimal use of continuing external funding, including identifying scenarios and policy options to raise domestic resources and realise efficiency gains. Key areas for data and evidence to guide decision making include tracking financial flows, informing costing of programmes, establishing criteria for priority-setting, and identifying duplication and other inefficiencies from parallel programmes that can arise from external support.

Low data transparency and insufficient information on which funds flow to which services compound the difficulty of mobilising domestic resources to respond to changes in external funding. There is a need to improve monitoring and related accountability of financing for countries and external funders alike.15 In the medium term, the current fragmented data systems and information flows need reform to enable the system-wide allocation of domestic and external resources to meet population health needs most efficiently. South Africa provides an example of how financial data can be linked to implementation indicators to improve financial accountability.16

The new era of global health must be rapidly constructed without seeking merely to restore what was. The previous era was already likely to end in 2030—despite the current unprecedented reductions, development assistance for health was already declining in the lead up to 2030 and the passing of the Sustainable Development Goals. Calls for greater national and regional leadership and ownership were already strong, as seen in the Lusaka Agenda.17 Overhauling the global health financing architecture requires grappling with the power asymmetries and misaligned incentive structures that have led to the current financial cliffs. Countries have progressed the universal health coverage agenda in previous times of fiscal constraint and there is the potential for greater South–South support. To minimise suffering and death in this crisis, countries have no choice but to exert more leadership and responsibility. Global health and development finance institutions must address their own challenges, adapting their financing and operating models, to robustly support countries to do so.
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