Summary
Background
A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at similar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7.83 trillion in 2013 to $18.28 (uncertainty interval 14.42–22.24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2.7% (1.9–3.4) in high-income countries, 3.4% (2.4–4.2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3.0% (2.3–3.6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2.4% (1.6–3.1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0.03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Joseph L Dieleman, PhD, Tara Templin, BA, Nafis Sadat, MA, Patrick Reidy, BA, Abigail Chapin, BA, Kyle Foreman, PhD, Annie Haakenstad, MA, Tim Evans, MD, Prof Christopher J L Murray, MD, Christoph Kurowski, MD
Published Online: 13 April 2016
http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(16)30167-2.pdfSee also
Development assistance for health: past trends, associations, and the future of international financial flows for health
Joseph L Dieleman, Matthew T Schneider, Annie Haakenstad, Lavanya Singh, Nafi s Sadat, Maxwell Birger, Alex Reynolds, Tara Templin, Hannah Hamavid, Abigail Chapin, Christopher J L Murray
Summary
Background Disbursements of development assistance for health (DAH) have risen substantially during the past several decades. More recently, the international community’s attention has turned to other international challenges,introducing uncertainty about the future of disbursements for DAH.
Methods
We collected audited budget statements, annual reports, and project-level records from the main international agencies that disbursed DAH from 1990 to the end of 2015. We standardised and combined records to provide a comprehensive set of annual disbursements. We tracked each dollar of DAH back to the source and forward to the recipient. We removed transfers between agencies to avoid double-counting and adjusted for inflation. We classified assistance into nine primary health focus areas: HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, maternal health, newborn and child health, other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, Ebola, and sector-wide approaches and health system strengthening. For our statistical analysis, we grouped these health focus areas into two categories: MDG related focus areas (HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, child and newborn health, and maternal health) and non-MDG related focus areas (other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, sector-wide approaches, and other). We used linear regression to test for structural shifts in disbursement patterns at the onset of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs; ie, from 2000) and the global financial crisis (impact estimated to occur in 2010). We built on past trends and associations with an ensemble model to estimate DAH through the end of 2040. Findings In 2015, US$36.4 billion of DAH was disbursed, marking the fifth consecutive year of little change in the amount of resources provided by global health development partners. Between 2000 and 2009, DAH increased at 11.3% per year, whereas between 2010 and 2015, annual growth was just 1.2%. In 2015, 29.7% of DAH was for HIV/AIDS, 17.9% was for child and newborn health, and 9.8% was for maternal health. Linear regression identifies three distinct periods of growth in DAH. Between 2000 and 2009, MDG-related DAH increased by $290.4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 174.3 million to 406.5 million) per year. These increases were significantly greater than were increases in non-MDG DAH during the same period (p=0.009), and were also significantly greater than increases in the previous period (p<0.0001). Between 2000 and 2009, growth in DAH was highest for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Since 2010, DAH for maternal health and newborn and child health has continued to climb, although DAH for HIV/AIDS and most other health focus areas has remained flat or decreased. Our estimates of future DAH based on past trends and associations present a wide range of potential futures, although our mean estimate of $64.1 billion (95% UI $30.4 billion to $161.8 billion) shows an increase between now and 2040, although with a large uncertainty interval.
Interpretation
Our results provide evidence of two substantial shifts in DAH growth during the past 26 years. DAH disbursements increased faster in the first decade of the 2000s than in the 1990s, but DAH associated with the MDGs increased the most out of all focus areas. Since 2010, limited growth has characterised DAH and we expect this pattern to persist. Despite the fact that DAH is still growing, albeit minimally, DAH is shifting among the major health focus areas, with relatively little growth for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. These changes in the growth and focus of DAH will have critical effects on health services in some low-income countries. Coordination and collaboration between donors and domestic governments is more important than ever because they have a great opportunity and responsibility to ensure robust health systems and service provision for those most in need.
Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
