Comments welcome.... original document with footnotes in the attachment
Discussion Paper
International Ebola Recovery Strategy
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IntroductionThe impact of Ebola in West Africa and the response of the international community has been well documented, most recently the $3.4 Billion promised by the international community at the International Ebola Pledging Conference hosted by the UN on 9-10th July 2015.
This presents a unique opportunity to develop a new paradigm for aid delivery. Traditional methods have been beset by corruption, waste, overlap and inefficiency. As a result little, if any, resources benefit the intended beneficiaries. This discussion paper suggests a method of aid delivery which could be tested in West Africa which already has a significant body of research suggesting that the impact on the poor is of significant benefit. This method would be to guarantee a basic monthly income for all citizens of $10 for the pilot period of one year in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Basic Income A basic income is an income unconditionally granted to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement.
• it is paid to individuals (including children) rather than households;
• it is paid irrespective of any income from other sources;
• it is paid without requiring the performance of any work or the willingness to accept a job if offered.
Many prominent social scientists favour basic income – among them at least one Nobel laureate in economics (James Meade) and others supporting the related concept of a guaranteed minimum income, (Paul Krugman, Milton Friedman, F. A. Hayek, Herbert A. Simon, and Robert Solow). Recently, David Miliband has written on the advantages of cash transfers in emergency situations on behalf of the International Rescue Committee.
A major advantage of Basic Income is administrative efficiency. The lack of a means test allows for extra resources to be directed to the transfer of funds. Should some individuals choose not to avail themselves of the income then they could either not claim or even transfer the resources to nominated charities. All research points to the benefits of such cash transfers, with little or no abuse of the transfer on “temptation” goods such as alcohol or cigarettes.
TargetingGiven the universal nature of the benefit, the target beneficiaries are all citizens in the respective countries. It is therefore required that all citizens should be able to be identified. This could be provided by a combination of census records, ID cards, birth certificates and electoral rolls. Given the nature of the populations in West Africa, these methods are likely to be non-exhaustive and supplementary information may be required, such as physical presentation.
Sierra Leone had planned to conduct a census in 2015, and any Basic Income transfer could complement and enhance the census. Birth registrations reached about 77% in 2013. If required for Basic Income transfers, then this figure should increase. The 2012 election required biometric registration and saw over 90% turn out for the Presidential election.
Liberia last conducted a census in 2008. ID cards are free to all citizens and if required for Basic Income would undoubtedly improve ID coverage. In addition there has been a campaign to increase birth registration in Liberia – again if required for Basic Income, then registration would increase which would help to protect children from child marriage, child labour and trafficking. The 2011 election saw an estimated turnout of over 70% of eligible voters.
Guinea conducted a census in 2014. It does not have an identity card. Basic Income transfer could facilitate any initiatives in these areas. Birth Certificates cover about 58% of births. The 2013 election saw over 60% of eligible voters turn out.
Cost of Basic Income Pilots
Country Population Basic Income / Month Total Annual Cost
Guinea 10,629,000 (2014 cen) $10 $1,275,480,000
Liberia 4,400,000 (2015 est.) $10 $528,000,000
Sierra Leone 6,200,000 (2013 est.) $10 $744,000,000
Grand Total 21,229,000 (best est.) $2,547,000,000
The above table represents the estimated cost of the transfer. In addition the costs of administration would have to be added (relatively low compared to most projects). No doubt monitoring and evaluation of such a pilot would also be required incurring extra costs. The total would easily be accommodated by a $3 billion budget.
Transfer Mechanism Currently cash is being transferred using mobile phone technology in Sierra Leone through “Splash Transfer”. This technology could be expanded for the Basic Income Pilot. Extra research would be required for feasibility.
In Liberia WFP, ICRC and UN Women are currently transferring cash using mobile phone technology as part of its response to Ebola. UNICEF/EU also has experience of cash transfers under the Social Cash Transfer Programme.
A cursory search provided no information regarding cash transfers in Guinea. It is possible that a transfer mechanism would need to be started from scratch.
Potential PitfallsDelivery mechanism in particular in Guinea. Maybe Guinea could receive the same amount of funding but through traditional aid methods and thereby act as a control for monitoring and evaluation purposes.
Political resistance within target countries. The nature of the transfer minimises leakage of funds, which could result in political resistance.
Identification of beneficiaries. There will be problems in identifying all beneficiaries given the nature of West Africa, which can be refined over time. Maybe this pilot could be seen as an experiment which, in the grand picture, would deliver benefits on a more efficient scale to the poor than traditional aid methods, despite problems in identification of beneficiaries.
ConclusionThe piloting of Basic Income presents an opportunity to deliver resources directly to the poor in a post emergency environment. It is affordable and potentially replicable in the three countries identified (it represents less than 25% of the annual UK aid budget). If successful it could be replicated in other countries.
