Cross-country comparison of PEFA scores (CABRI Seminar May 2010)

[petagny]

Some interesting papers were presented at this CABRI seminar in May:

http://www.cabri-sbo.org/en/component/content/article/20-downloads/137-seminar-presentations

I particularly like the presentation and paper (attached) by Matthew Andrews (who usually writes some sensible stuff).

Purists will not like his cross-country comparison of PEFA scores, but he uses this to highlight some interesting patterns and causes for concern, summarised as:

Countries generally:

• make better budgets than they execute (the downstream problem)
• have systems that look better than they are (the de facto problem)
• progress where reform is in the hands of small sets of actors, and don’t otherwise (the de-concentrated actor problem)

His conclusion is that systems of the PEFA variety may be illusory and rather than pushing for models that resemble hippos in the desert ('impressive, but pretty useless'; 'absorbing capacity, resources with little functional impact') we should be thinking more of functional camels. He suggests that the models that eventually arise will be functional hybrids reflecting culture and experience (much as exist in OECD countries) and that the key is to facilitate reform by helping create 'ChangeSpace' rather than imposing 'best practice' technocratic and legalistic solutions.  Anyway, look at the presentation first and then read the article and see what you think.

Also some interesting PPP case studies at this location.

[harnett]

Interesting.  I particularly like the concentrated v deconcentrated argument with stats to back it.  It appears to me that even where MTEF (or similar) rollout has occured (to MDAs and/or Local Government), there has still been a reluctance to accompany the roll out with a lossening of power/control by the MOF.  This appears to reflect a degree of scepticism regarding the ability of lower levels to "manage" funds in a positive way - often well founded when capacity is assessed at these levels.  No wonder, there are so many disaffected deconcentrated actors who have little real incentive to jump through the hoops that reform is pushing them towards   Furthermore, these actors may well correctly estimate that despte any great efforts they may make towards professional budget preparation, the "real" determinant of execution will be political anyway with little respect for the beautifully prepared budget.  Easier to stick to traditional budget preparation and add 5-10% for the MTEF outer years and keep the MOF happy by submitting on time!  Sad but true I'm afraid, but still definately worth persuing how deconcentrated actors can be drawn into whatever budgeting system develops.