QUESTION 7
More than a question, I want to share the IMF proposal on Reforming the EU Fiscal Framework: Strengthening the Fiscal Rules and Institutions' (
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2022/08/31/Reforming-the-EU-Fiscal-Framework-Strengthening-the-Fiscal-Rules-and-Institutions-The-EUs-518388 )
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The IMF’s proposal has three interconnected pillars:
Risk-based EU-level fiscal rules: While the current 3 percent deficit and 60 percent debt reference values remain, the speed and ambition of fiscal adjustments would be linked to the degree of fiscal risks. These are identified by debt sustainability analysis using a common methodology, developed by a new and independent European Fiscal Council, or EFC, in consultation with other key stakeholders. Countries with greater fiscal risks would need to converge to a zero or positive overall fiscal balance over the next three to five years. Countries with lower fiscal risks and debt below 60 percent would have more flexibility but still need to consider risks in their plans. The framework would incentivize buildup of fiscal buffers allowing for significant flexibility to respond to adverse shocks and conduct countercyclical policy.
Strengthened national fiscal institutions: All EU countries would have to enact medium-term fiscal frameworks and set multi-year annual spending caps consistent with their overall balance anchor over the period. Independent national fiscal councils would play a stronger role to strengthen checks and balances at the country level, including making or endorsing macroeconomic projections, assessing fiscal risks, and ensuring the consistency of the expenditure ceilings and fiscal plans. The European Commission would continue to play its key surveillance role and the EFC would serve as the central node for a network of national fiscal councils, helping to promote good practices and providing an independent voice both on debt risks and the execution of the framework.
A well-designed EU fiscal capacity: This would be established to achieve two key roles: improving macroeconomic stabilization, especially when monetary policy is operating at the effective lower bound, and allowing the provision of common public goods at the EU level, such as climate change and energy security infrastructure. Delivering these has become more urgent due to the green transition and common security concerns. A dedicated climate investment fund is an important part of the proposal.
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John, the establishment of Fiscal Councils is not new. Their coordination at EU level is and sounds a wise step towards a slow process of fiscal policy convergence. What is you take on it?