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41
Have you seen this? / Adam Smith: What he thought and why it matters
« Last post by John Short on September 16, 2023, 07:47:25 GMT »
Very listenable audio of a book on Adam Smith the "father" of economics by Jesse Norman.
For those not too interested in the history or do not have the time, Episode 5 on how Adam Smith's ideas should inform our thinking today may be of interest.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001qdlx/episodes/player
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The Macro-fiscal analysis made simple / Re: Report on Global Debt - Revisited
« Last post by John Short on September 14, 2023, 08:46:21 GMT »
Recent IMF Blog on Debt

Question is are we back to the future of the past with interest rates returning to "normality"?

"Despite the economic growth rebound from 2020 and much higher-than-expected inflation, public debt remained stubbornly high. Fiscal deficits kept public debt levels elevated, as many governments spent more to boost growth and respond to food and energy price spikes even as they ended pandemic-related fiscal support.

As a result, public debt declined by just 8 percentage points of GDP over the last two years, offsetting only about half of the pandemic-related increase, as shown in our latest Global Debt Monitor. Private debt, which includes household and non-financial corporate debt, declined at a faster clip, dropping 12 percentage points of GDP. Even then, the decline was not enough to erase the pandemic surge."

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/09/13/global-debt-is-returning-to-its-rising-trend?

Also 2023-09-2023-global-debt-monitor.pdf on imf.org
43
The Country PFM Boards (in your own language if you like it) / Re: Éirinn go Brách
« Last post by John Short on September 07, 2023, 13:02:32 GMT »
Interesting commentary from the Fiscal Council which is an independent statutory body with a mandate to:
•   Assess the Government’s fiscal stance
•   Assess and endorse its official economic forecasts
•   Assess its budgetary forecasts
•   Monitor fiscal rules

https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/pre-budget-2024-statement/
Key Messages
“The Government now plans to repeatedly breach the National Spending Rule every year out to 2026. The Government’s intention is to go beyond plans set out in April, repeatedly breach the National Spending Rule every year out to 2026. The Rule sets a 5% limit for core spending increases net of new tax measures — a speed broadly matching trend growth that would help stabilise the economy and avoid fuelling price and wage pressures. Core net spending is now expected to be €4 billion higher by 2026 compared to previous plans.
These breaches are a serious cause for concern.
1) They risk repeating Ireland’s past mistakes, with employment already high and windfalls boosting the Exchequer. This would represent a continuation of procyclical fiscal policy.
2) The stance adopted undermines the National Spending Rule at a time when EU fiscal rules are not binding and likely to be distorted by GDP if and when new proposals are enacted.
3) The manner in which plans were revised weakens the credibility of Government projections, lacking transparency and not factoring in overruns and costs related to population ageing and the climate transition.
The Council recognises pressures for additional spending, but these pressures should be funded sustainably. Pressures in health, housing, infrastructure and climate-related areas are likely to need ongoing multi-year funding. If the Government wishes to ramp up spending across all these areas, it should ensure that the outlays can be maintained on an ongoing basis and not just based on receipts expected to prove temporary.
Looking to Budget 2024, the Council assesses that:
• The Government should adjust its plans to stick to its National Spending Rule. This would ensure more credible and sustainable fiscal plans. It could be achieved by introducing offsetting tax increases or spending adjustments elsewhere. To this end, there is a role for developing more comprehensive reviews of existing programmes.
• There is little to no justification for further temporary non-core measures in Budget 2024. Energy prices are falling and temporary measures risk adding to price pressures. Additional unfunded measures, given the existing pressures and low unemployment, would represent a further shift toward a more procyclical fiscal policy.
• The Government needs to improve its long-term planning. The Government’s fiscal plans only go to 2026, right before new estimates from the Council suggest climate costs will mount (Casey and Carroll, 2023). Ageing pressures will also begin to deepen towards the end of this decade.
• The Council welcomes proposals for a new Savings Vehicle — temptations to spend more resources immediately should be resisted, without offsetting measures elsewhere. There are substantial pressures for additional spending and there is a good case to be made for additional public investment. However, the State already has ways to achieve that. The National Spending Rule allows additional spending provided this is offset elsewhere, while the National Development Plan provides a framework to plan longer term capital needs. The rationale for an investment fund is weak. It risks simply being used as a means of ramping up capital spending in the short term even more than currently planned, and at a time when getting value for money is challenging.
• The Government should reinforce its National Spending Rule as a “first line of defence”. The Government’s National Spending Rule could continue to prove a useful tool to ensure the public finances are managed sustainably. But it needs to be reinforced and adhered to.”

See also
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gw0888ew5o
which contains:
"Irish Finance Minister Michael McGrath rejected the IFAC criticism, saying inflation meant the government had to adapt its policy, which included breaching the spending rule.
He added that "on balance" it was the right thing to do."
44
Have you seen this? / The IMF and the Guardian newspaper on the same page: incroyable
« Last post by John Short on September 04, 2023, 07:42:11 GMT »
Two interesting articles on lack of investment and misguided subsidies and the economic consequences

Chaos in our skies, crumbling concrete in our schools: grim symptoms of a British disease Will Hutton | The Guardian

“A long-term lack of investment has left our infrastructure in pieces. Instead we are prey to dire fallout from events that should be within our control”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/03/chaos-in-skies-crumbling-concrete-in-schools-grim-symptoms-british-disease
 

And

Fossil-fuel subsidies surged to a record $7 trillion last year as governments supported consumers and businesses during the global spike in energy prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the economic recovery from the pandemic.

As the world struggles to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and parts of Asia, Europe and the United States swelter in extreme heat, subsidies for oil, coal and natural gas are costing the equivalent of 7.1 percent of global gross domestic product. That’s more than governments spend annually on education (4.3 percent of global income) and about two thirds of what they spend on healthcare (10.9 percent).
Scaling back subsidies would reduce air pollution, generate revenue, and make a major contribution to slowing climate change
Simon Black, Ian Parry, Nate Vernon
Fossil Fuel Subsidies Surged to Record $7 Trillion (imf.org)
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
45
A comprehensive review of the taxation system in the UK has just been published by Institute of Fiscal Studies.
Tax and public finances: the fundamentals by Isaac Delestre and Helen Miller 

Summary at https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-and-public-finances-fundamentals

This report highlights 10 key facts about UK tax and public finance policy that will underpin the choices faced by governments in coming decades.  It supports and expands the argument made in the PFMBoard above. 

To quote the report: “Rather, it is a question of how those taxes are designed. The 10 key facts that we have highlighted (see the ‘Fundamental facts’ box) reflect that almost all taxes have major design flaws and significant scope for improvement. If the opportunity is taken, those improvements could go a long way to reducing the economic pain that a higher overall level of tax would entail. While there are specific choices and challenges for each tax, the problems caused by poor tax design fall into three broad types.

First, various taxes distort the choices of people and firms in ways that are unjustified (in the sense that the distortions are not necessary to achieve government aims, such as redistribution). For example: high marginal tax rates caused by ‘humps’ in income tax reduce work incentives (by more than is necessary to achieve redistribution); preferential tax rates on business incomes discourage employment (relative to self-employment); large-scale carve-outs within VAT create heavy compliance burdens; corporation tax both discourages some profitable investments and subsidises some unprofitable ones; and stamp duty prevents some people from moving house to, for example, take a better job. Such distortions can mean that less work is done, investment is lower and/or resources are not being allocated to their most efficient uses. Ultimately, inefficient tax design is an unnecessary drag on productivity.

Second, many parts of the tax system are unfair. This is not a statement about vertical redistribution, about which there is reasonable disagreement. Parts of the tax system currently treat very similar people in very different ways that are hard to justify. Two people living in houses that are worth the same amount today can face very different council tax bills if their houses happen to have been worth different amounts in 1991 (the year on which council tax valuations in England and Scotland are based). And two people earning the same income by doing the same work can face very different tax bills if one is an employee and the other is self-employed. Taxes are currently also reinforcing inequalities arising from the fact that different generations have experienced very different economic conditions. Notably, large capital gains on main homes – many of them the result of luck – have been central to a growing intergenerational divide in wealth and are completely untaxed.

Third, some parts of the tax system are not well designed to achieve policy aims. Taxes are, of course, not only used to raise revenue or (alongside the benefit system) to redistribute income. Governments have also long used tax with the explicit aim of changing behaviour. In fact, in recent decades, governments have been introducing new ways to do this. Most notably, there are now various parts of the tax system, including a large number of environmental levies, that are aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The tax system should play a key role in helping the UK transition to net zero. However, the combined effect of the various government policies is an uneven set of incentives that will make achieving net zero more costly than it needs to be.

There is nothing inevitable about the tax system we currently have or the problems it creates. It can be challenging to design taxes and, in some cases, there are trade-offs between different goals. But much is known about how to reform taxes in ways that would make the system more effective, efficient and equitable.

The main challenges are likely to be political. Many of the needed reforms would be large. There would be losers, as well as winners. The potential losers are often a more concentrated and better-organised group than those who are losing out from the current system. In addition, there is often a public misunderstanding about why the tax system is the way it is and which features are justified. For example, over 80% of the UK’s workforce are employees. They lose out from a system that gives tax breaks to the self-employed. If taxes were the same for both groups, overall spending could be higher or taxes on employment lower. Despite this, most employees do not think of themselves as losers from this system. In addition, there is widespread belief that lower tax rates on the self-employed are justified by lower government benefits for that group – this is not the case. Philip Hammond, when Chancellor, tried to implement a small increase to National Insurance contributions of the self-employed in Budget 2017; he U-turned after fierce opposition.

Despite the political difficulties of reforming taxes, governments do face a choice; not seeking to address the problems with the design of the tax system is a choice to live with those problems.
Governments should take this choice seriously. The design of the tax system matters hugely. Reforms in the areas we highlight would be worthwhile even if taxes were being cut overall. But the shape of the tax system matters even more when spending demands are placing upward pressure on the overall level of tax.
There are no silver bullets here. But better-designed taxes could bring real benefits, including by supporting higher economic growth and facilitating the move to net zero. Tax could and should be part of the solution to future challenges rather than part of the problem.”

Full report can be downloaded from
Tax and public finances: the fundamentals (ifs.org.uk)
https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-08/IFS-Report-R270-Tax-and-public-finances-the-fundamentals_final.pdf

46
Of course it is not just tax rates - something has to be taxed.

The position that has been reported has been generated by two major investments - in education and in roads.

As Ireland has not any significant non human resources, investment in its people has been important to attract inward investment.  OECD figures show this:

https://gpseducation.oecd.org/CountryProfile?plotter=h5&primaryCountry=IRL&treshold=5&topic=EO

The other area of significant investment has been in motorways which has transformed the country. It is easy now to travel from North to South (through the unique County of Laois) and from East to West in a fraction of time compared to 10 to 15 years ago using good public transport: Dublin to Galway is a good example.

47
"Ireland's economy has recovered strongly from the Covid-19 pandemic so more taxes like VAT are being collected.

But something else is going on. That something is the corporation tax coming from multinational companies.

Last year Ireland raised €22.6bn (£20bn) in corporation tax, 182% more than the €8bn (£7.08bn) it took in just five years ago.

Of that €22.6bn Mr McGrath has designated about €12bn (£10.62bn) as a "windfall" from multinationals, meaning it has been derived from a particular set of circumstances that won't last forever.

Ireland has long featured in the tax planning of multinational companies, often as a conduit for shifting money around.

But in the middle of the last decade some of the world's biggest companies began to reorganise their affairs in a way which meant they would pay a lot more tax in Ireland.

Ironically this was partially a response to the pressure on big companies to clean up their act on tax."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65343497

See also:

https://www.ntma.ie/uploads/general/NTMA-Investor-Presentation-website-final.pdf
48
The report presents the updated spectrum of PFM diagnostic tools and their use. It is intended to contribute to increased knowledge of all stakeholders (governments, custodians, development partners, practitioners, and academia) on the available PFM diagnostic tools, as well as good practices related to tool development and use.

The current mapping identifies 64 PFM diagnostic tools that were available at the end of 2019. The mapped PFM tools are grouped across four groups based on their characteristics.

Stocktaking of Public Financial Management Tools: Global Trends and Insights (2022) (English)

Stocktaking of Public Financial Management Tools 2022: Volume 1 (English)

Stocktaking of Public Financial Management Tools 2022: Volume 2 (English)

Published in August 2023
https://www.pefa.org/resources/stocktaking-public-financial-management-tools-global-trends-and-insights-2022
49
COVID-19 and PFM / Comprehensive specification of fiscal and other risks: UK
« Last post by John Short on August 09, 2023, 10:13:56 GMT »
Details

"The 2023 National Risk Register is the external version of the National Security Risk Assessment, which is the government’s assessment of the most serious risks facing the UK. It provides the government’s updated assessment of the likelihood and potential impact of a broad range of risks that may directly affect the UK and its interests.

This version of the National Risk Register is more transparent than ever before. It  reflects the principles of the UK Government Resilience Framework to communicate risk information in a more open and accessible way, to ensure shared understanding of and greater preparedness for risks. It’s aimed at risk and resilience practitioners, including businesses and voluntary and community sector organisations."

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-2023
50
Findings may read a bit harsh on the UK Gov.

Reading the list of barriers, Uzbekistan may fit the picture, to an extreme. With an exception
In Tashkent its very clear about who is responsible for instigating change: The President!
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