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The Sector PFM Boards / Rethinking development assistance for health
« Last post by John Short on December 09, 2023, 10:35:03 GMT »
Rethinking how development assistance for health can catalyse progress on primary health care

Tobias Kasper, MPA † Prof Gavin Yamey, MD  †Sinead Dwyer, MA Kaci Kennedy McDade, MPA
Jon Lidén, BA Cora Lüdemann, MA et al.

Summary

Global campaigns to control HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and vaccine-preventable illnesses showed that large-scale impact can be achieved by using additional international financing to support selected, evidence-based, high-impact investment areas and to catalyse domestic resource mobilisation. Building on this paradigm, we make the case for targeting additional international funding for selected high-impact investments in primary health care. We have identified and costed a set of concrete, evidence-based investments that donors could support, which would be expected to have major impacts at an affordable cost. These investments are in: (1) individuals and communities empowered to engage in health decision making, (2) a new model of people-centred primary care, and (3) next generation community health workers. These three areas would be supported by strengthening two cross-cutting elements of national systems. The first is the digital tools and data that support facility, district, and national managers to improve processes, quality of care, and accountability across primary health care. The second is the educational, training, and supervisory systems needed to improve the quality of care. We estimate that with an additional international investment of between US$1•87 billion in a low-investment scenario and $3•85 billion in a high-investment scenario annually over the next 3 years, the international community could support the scale-up of this evidence-based package of investments in the 59 low-income and middle-income countries that are eligible for external financing from the World Bank Group's International Development Association.

Rethinking how development assistance for health can catalyse progress on primary health care - The Lancet  Number 10418 | Dec 09, 2023 p 2167- 2264

Published: November 12, 2023DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01813-5

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The Revenue Framework / Colombia introduces junk food tax
« Last post by John Short on December 03, 2023, 07:50:52 GMT »
I had debated where to post this – under tax or under health, but tax won even though it hopefully will not raise revenue but nudges consumers to lower junk food consumption. 
But also see other posts such as Food for thought on the Revenue Framework on this topic!

The country is one of the first to tax food high in salt and saturated fat to reduce obesity and other diseases. Joe Parkin Daniels reports from Bogotá in the Lancet Published: November 22, 2023DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02628-4.

The new tax was included in a wider reform that passed into law in December, 2022, seeking to reduce the burden of obesity and other diseases on Colombia’s health system, while also bringing in revenue in a country that manages a fiscal deficit. “This isn’t to take your money, it is so that you choose healthier foodstuffs and improve the health of the Colombian people”, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who oversaw the law’s passage, wrote on X at the beginning of November, when it came into effect. The tax is being implemented gradually, beginning at 10%, before rising to 15% in 2024 and 20% in 2025, and targets foods that are high in salt and saturated fat, as well as industrially manufactured prepackaged foods. Juan Camilo Cárdenas, Professor of Economics at the University of the Andes in Bogotá, said that the measure’s success will be judged on how consumer habits respond to the change in prices. “From an economic perspective the measure is fairly simple: to create incentives to guide consumer behaviour to healthier products, and to guide manufacturers to offer more healthy products”, Cárdenas said. “The ideal goal is that we reach a point where the collections of this tax are minimal because society (both consumers and vendors) has moved to a healthier market.

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Have you seen this? / Re: World Basic Income - Impact of AI examined
« Last post by John Short on November 17, 2023, 08:10:01 GMT »
Interesting article on AI and UBI  by Philippa Kelly with references  to many studies

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution
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A very well researched report on regional policy has been published by Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government Harvard Kennedy School | www.hks.harvard.edu/mrcbg

WHY HASN’T UK REGIONAL POLICY WORKED? The views of leading practitioners

Dan Turner Harvard Kennedy School Nyasha Weinberg Harvard Kennedy School Esme Elsden University College London Ed Balls King’s College London Harvard Kennedy School October 2023


https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp216

Abstract
“UK domestic policy – especially in England - in recent years has focused on regional inequalities in economic outcomes and public service delivery, which are tied to a political ‘geography of discontent’ that emerged in the 2010s. These inequalities are nothing new; nor are public policy efforts to address them. We conducted interviews with ninety-three top level political and official policymakers across the UK (spanning six decades of experience). This paper summarises practitioners’ views on the lessons we can learn from past efforts to address to address regional divides. We find broad political consensus on a range of areas: that widening divides are not inevitable; that previous policy regimes have lacked sufficient ambition; that excessive past centralisation has driven policy instability. We find that the Mayoral Combined Authority model, coupled with sustainable local government funding, could form the basis for a cross-party consensus on regional growth. Our interviewees diverge on how future reforms ought to be prioritised, with open questions on: the division of powers across tiers of government; how much institutional pluralism there ought to be in devolved governments; how to devolve power (and whether the current ‘bottom-up’ approach ought to remain); and on the design of fair funding formulae and fiscal devolution.”


One of the aims of the work was learning the lessons of history.   The starting point of the investigation was 1979 and as a result it did not include the work of the Northern Region Strategy Team whose report was published in 1978.  One of the first actions of the incoming Government in 1979 was to dismiss the report, perhaps on ideological grounds.

The output of the NRST was a five-volume Strategic Plan for the Northern Region:

Volume 1 Main Report which was a summary of the analysis and recommendations
Volume 2 Economic Development Policies
Volume 3 Social & Environmental Policies
Volume 4 Settlement Pattern & Transport Policies
Volume 5 Public Expenditure Priorities

A great deal of hard work and research underpinned the realisation of these outputs. Key to this was the composition of the team which was made of economists with sector specialism in the main areas and strategic planners. Critical input also was the leadership. Head of the team was Bevan Waide who had previously been on the staff of the World Bank with deputies on the economic side, Nick Segal and on the planning side, Ian Crowther.  I have to admit a vested interest as I was responsible for the work on public expenditure which is covered in Applied Economic which is  referenced elsewhere in the PFM Board.


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The Revenue Framework / Global Tax Evasion Report 2024
« Last post by John Short on October 23, 2023, 09:43:44 GMT »
Global Tax Evasion Report 2024

Authors: Annette Alstadsæter, Sarah Godar, Panayiotis Nicolaides, and Gabriel Zucman

Over the last 10 years, governments have launched major initiatives to reduce international tax evasion. Yet despite the importance of these developments, little is known about the effects of these new policies. Is global tax evasion falling or rising? Are new issues emerging, and if so, what are they? This report addresses these questions thanks to an unprecedented international research collaboration building on the work of more than 100 researchers globally.


From the Executive Summary:


"This report makes six recommendations to address the issues identified above. The common
theme of these recommendations is that they focus on reducing the tax deficit of multinational
companies and wealthy individuals. The tax deficits are the difference between what these actors
pay in taxes today and what they would pay if minimum taxes were well enforced. Reducing the
tax deficits of multinationals and wealthy individuals can not only generate large amounts of
government revenue, but also contribute to increasing the social sustainability of globalization.

Our proposals are the following:

1. Reform the international agreement on minimum corporate taxation to implement a rate
of 25% and remove the loophole in it that foster tax competition.

2. Introduce a new global minimum tax for the world’s billionaires equal to 2% of their
wealth.

3. Institute mechanisms to tax wealthy people who have been long-term residents in a
country and choose to move to a low-tax country.

4. Implement unilateral measures to collect some of the tax deficits of multinational
companies and billionaires in case global agreements on these issues fail.

5. Move towards the creation of a Global Asset Registry to better fight tax evasion.

6. Strengthen the application of economic substance and anti-abuse rules."


https://www.taxobservatory.eu//www-site/uploads/2023/10/global_tax_evasion_report_24.pdf
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Managing budget support / Re: Fiduciary Risk and PEFA
« Last post by John Short on October 12, 2023, 14:31:06 GMT »
The PEFA Secretariat has produced a new guidance in relation to using PEFA for FRA.

Overview

Fiduciary assurance from a development partner lens is the process that involves assessing the fiduciary risk of financial support not being used for the proper intended purposes and that lead to the decision on degree of reliance on existing country systems to ensure achieving of development objectives of the financial support provided. For doing such assessment the development agencies have in place different methodologies aligned with the institutional consideration of fiduciary risk and identification of mitigation measures that may include identification of actions for strengthening such systems and institutions.
PEFA assessments have been used as input for the fiduciary work with variations in different aspects. As a matter of fact, PEFA Secretariat recently developed and launched Guidance on how to use PEFA for fiduciary assurance (“Guidance”) with the objective of utilizing the PEFA framework for fiduciary assurance.
 

Objective
The objective of this virtual knowledge event is to look at PEFA through a fiduciary lens, to explore how the “Guidance” works and to hear from development agencies on their experiences with fiduciary assurance mechanism with the intention of greater use of country PFM systems for routing development support.

There was an interesting webinar on this on 12 October 2023.

https://www.pefa.org/resources/pefa-fiduciary-guidance

The PEFA Fiduciary Guidance is not a methodology in itself, it aims to enhance the use of PEFA reports for fiduciary considerations on country systems. As it follows the standard PEFA methodology, its focus is on central government (CG), with deeper emphasis on the Budgetary Central Government (BCG). The guidance focuses on the elements of information in the PEFA report to consider in country systems from a fiduciary standpoint. It does not draw conclusions or prescribe mitigating measures in relation with the elements assessed.

The present document does not aim at substituting the fiduciary methodologies developed by the development agencies. Its intent is to help the fiduciary works by providing a guidance on how to use the PEFA reports as an input. It includes a correspondence table between fiduciary risk areas, and PEFA dimensions, and an analysis of the extent to which the PEFA dimensions can contribute to the fiduciary assessment. The use of PEFA for Fiduciary consideration has the advantage of being based on an established methodology used by development partners that could promote and support the donor harmonization agenda. As different institutions may have different risk appetites, they may conclude differently with the same information.

This guidance is based on the seven key fiduciary key areas of the PFM cycle:

(i) budgeting, (ii) flow of funds, (iii) internal controls, (iv) procurement, (v) accounting, (vi) financial reporting, and (vii) auditing. Each fiduciary area is broken down in critical PFM processes identified as fiduciary processes, which are linked to corresponding PEFA dimensions. Those fiduciary processes that are not covered by PEFA are not included in this guidance.

The guidance is prepared with focus on using the PEFA reports as source of information.
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Public Investment Management / Re: Credibility of a Fiscal contract with citizens?
« Last post by Napodano on October 09, 2023, 06:44:02 GMT »
'fees for private education be subject to VAT'

Interestingly this fiscal option is currently considered in Albania.

I see it as a way of 'earmarking revenues' which in the past was a no-no option. Yet, in these times of current and future increasing public expenditures, revenue earmarking may be palatable as part of a fiscal contract with citizens: 'we tax you more in exchange of better services'. That seems one of the messages coming from the recent ODI conference.
On this subject go and check Marc Robinson's speech at 
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/marc-robinson-4012081b_do-we-need-a-new-public-finance-agenda-for-activity-7115340823218507776-Ka8d?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
   
The issue for me is the credibility of a fiscal contract, which implies long term commitments, in a such divisive and unstable political environment
 
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Public Investment Management / Re: Update on HS2 - panned as planned!
« Last post by John Short on October 04, 2023, 11:26:28 GMT »
There is much on HS2 on the PFM Board – search HS2! I have chosen just this one to continue the debate.

First there was the Liz Truss - -Kwasi Kwarteng “mini budget” of 23 September 2022 which would have had mostly D scores in PIs 14 to 16 of the PEFA Framework.

Now there is abandonment of the second phase of HS2 from the West Midlands to the Northern West Midlands with the third phase to the Northern Central Midlands having already been scrapped.  What score on PI-11 Public Investment Management for the biggest investment of a generation?  While this may be a retrospective critique it must question the consideration of alternative scenarios in terms of costs and benefits and alterative investment.  Were these carried out, or has the wisdom of Petagny been prophetic in his various posts? 
And of course the Northern Powerhouse Rail connecting the West and East of the Northern Midlands is a misnomer to satisfy political expediency or really to create a camouflage.


To ensure political equality: has the Labour Party found a novel way of increasing spending on education by proposing that fees for private education be subject to VAT.  It may be if the receipts are added to the education budget as proposed, but a bigger contribution would be from the tax expenditure resulting from the continuation of no VAT on publicly funded school expenses!  Is that ever measured?  Is this a good way to increase spending on health with a similar proposal?  Or is this a fudging of basic tax policy principles?
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Have you seen this? / Adam Smith: What he thought and why it matters
« Last post by John Short on September 16, 2023, 07:47:25 GMT »
Very listenable audio of a book on Adam Smith the "father" of economics by Jesse Norman.
For those not too interested in the history or do not have the time, Episode 5 on how Adam Smith's ideas should inform our thinking today may be of interest.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001qdlx/episodes/player
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